Why Caitlin Clark and Iowa will beat Paige Bueckers and UConn in the Final Four

CLEVELAND — Iowa doesn’t want to make the NCAA Tournament into its 2024 Revenge Tour. Nor does coach Lisa Bluder want the Hawkeyes games turning into a showdown between Caitlin Clark and, in this case, Paige Bueckers.

OK, then how about Survival of the Fittest?

This is not an indictment — at all — of UConn’s fitness, but rather its number of available players. Which is down to eight. The third-seeded Huskies might just be the most impressive team at the Final Four, given they got here despite losing six — six! — players to injury this year.

“This year was certainly one of the most challenging seasons of my career. And I have a lot of admiration and I'm really proud of my team, especially these three,” UConn coach Geno Auriemma said, motioning to Paige Bueckers, Aaliyah Edwards and Nika Muhl.

“For them to be here right now in this spot is probably one of the most gratifying things that I've had to experience in all my 40 years at Connecticut.”

FOLLOW THE MADNESS: NCAA basketball bracket, scores, schedules, teams and more.

But given the pace with which Iowa likes to play and the need to, if not contain Clark try to limit her damage, this matchup might be too much for UConn’s limited resources.

Clark is going to Clark. She’s averaging a little over 32 points in the NCAA Tournament after dropping 41 on LSU in the Elite Eight on Monday night, when she also had 12 assists and seven rebounds. After a rough start to the tournament, she appears to have fully settled in and good luck to anyone when that happens.

The larger concern, though, is that the rest of the Hawkeyes are stepping up, too.

Kate Martin had 21 points against LSU. Sydney Affolter continues to be a “super sub starter,” shooting better than 62% for the tournament. Hannah Stuelke has double-doubles in two of the first four games. Gabbie Marshall would be on the all-tournament defensive team, if such a thing existed.

Trying to deal with all of that would run a full-strength team ragged. And UConn is not at full strength.

Again, getting this far is a monumental accomplishment for UConn. Bueckers has been simply sensational, a throwback to 2021, when she became the only freshman to be named the AP Player of the Year.

But you need bodies to beat Clark and Iowa, and UConn simply doesn’t have them.

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.